Friday 18 May 2012

Apple stock: recent developments and forecasts

By Dr Jonathan Rosental


Did you have a bad day? Think about the third Apple founder who sold his share for 800 dollars which is now worth 58 billion! This joke from Korrespondent magazine reflects ups and downs of Apple stock.

When Apple made its first initial public offering back on December 12th, 1980 its share price increased to 29 dollars by the end of the day. When Steve Jobs was forced to leave by the Board Apple stock price dropped to 4 dollars.

Upon Steve Jobs return Apple equity started to gradually increase in price partly due to a highly innovative iPod that completely changed the status quo in mp3 market. For example, in 2007 each Apple share cost 100 dollars or 25 times more than in 1997.

Three years later Apple stock hit the 250-dollar mark which allowed Apple to leave behind Microsoft in terms of its market capitalization. Despite Steve Jobs sudden departure in 2011 Apple stock price did not go down the spiral and remained at the level of 380 dollars.

Something unexpected happened then in 2012 when Apple shares started to soar. In particular over a few months the Apple stock price jumped over six hundred.

Active day traders started to actively buy Apple stock when its price crossed the line of 600 dollars this March. A few lucky weeks Apple was worth more than Exxon Mobile that dominated the market for so many years.

According to Focus magazine the cold shower came quite unexpectedly in April when Apple lost about 50 billion US dollars of its market value that surprised even Economics PhD Harvard faculty. What was the reason for this quick drop in Apple stock value?

Shareholders will get about 100 billion in dividends, however, they are still worried because Apple lost about 7 per cent of the Tablet PC market to competitors. Android devices as well as Kindle Fire are becoming more popular as new electronic devices.

According to Gartner analytic company Apple is not sufficiently strong in developing markets. At the same time, Apple positions in EU and USA are as strong as ever.

Apple will probably open its official offices in more than 20 additional countries but at the moment you cannot get an official iPad even in such a highly populated country as Ukraine which has more than 40 million potential clients.

Apple may also be held accountable for the violation of the anti-trust law in sales of electronic books. Back in 2010 publishers started to charge more for books sold at iBookstore to defeat Amazon.

Apple subcontractors, especially Foxconn, are also often accused of violating worker's rights in China. This hypocritical behavior of the "think different" company may drive the most educated customers away.

However, there is a hope that Siri voice interface may create a new need that customers were not even aware of as it was with iPad tablet. The developers claim that Siri will completely change the interaction between users and the gadgets.

Siri first appeared in iPhone 4S and will also be included in iPanel TV to be released later this year. iPanel release may be that specific signal of recovery that Apple shareholders are expecting.




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